Wagner Roots Strong Enough to Outlive Prigozhin: Next Africa
Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was killed when his private plane crashed near Moscow, has helped prop up regimes and its forces have been accused of human rights abuses. His presence on the continent dates back five years, when it entered Libya and the Central African Republic before expanding its operations to Sudan and Mali, and briefly Mozambique. The Kremlin will need to assert their authority over tens of thousands of mercenaries spread over a vast area, but Wagner’s African roots run deep and its operatives have forged close ties with government and military officials. Meanwhile, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said a swift, peaceful restoration of democratic order in neighboring Niger is crucial and that he is pushing back against pressure to apply military force. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are set to join the BRICS grouping of major emerging markets, and Ethiopia is giving it three African members. Nigeria's stock exchange has proposed reforms in order to ease a potentially-expanding dollar-denominated stock listing.
게시됨 : 2 년 전 ~에 의해 Simon Marks ~에 Travel
Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed.
The day before his private plane crashed near Moscow, killing all passengers, charismatic Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin released a recruitment video from a desert-like landscape.
He extolled how his mercenaries had made Africa freer and brought justice and happiness to its people.
That’s disputable. It has helped prop up regimes and its forces have been accused of human rights abuses.
Wagner’s presence on the continent dates back five years, when it entered Libya and the Central African Republic before expanding its operations to Sudan and Mali, and briefly Mozambique.
Prigozhin became an iconoclastic celebrity in places like Mali and CAR, whose leaders have now lost an important ally.
Moscow will be loathe, however, to relinquish the influence that Wagner has helped it regain in Africa at little cost and with plausible deniability. It will want to maintain the lucrative security, gold mining, oil services and customs contracts, as well as its close relationships with some African governments.
That appeared evident this week, when top Russian military officials met Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the self-styled Libyan National Army who mounted a failed bid to seize control of Tripoli and forged close ties with Wagner.
Whoever is in charge, the Kremlin will need to assert their authority over tens of thousands of mercenaries spread over a vast area.
There’s no doubt Prigozhin death will reverberate across the continent, but Wagner’s African roots run deep. Its operatives have forged close ties with government and military officials, and their presence will in all likelihood endure.
Key stories and opinion:
Wagner’s Empire in Africa Will Live On After Prigozhin
If Prigozhin's Gone, Long Live Putin and Wagner?: Andreas Kluth
Putin and Wagner Are Still Gunning for Africa: James Stavridis
Wagner’s Mutiny Creates New Questions About Its Business Empire
Niger Coup Threatens Chaos as West Fears Russian Influence
Some of the US’s top Middle Eastern allies — including the world’s biggest oil exporter — are moving closer into the orbit of China and Russia, further complicating geopolitics upended by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt are set to join the BRICS grouping of major emerging markets, after being invited during a summit in South Africa. The enlarged group of emerging market nations will also include Ethiopia, giving it three African members.
Niger’s military leadership gave forces from Mali and Burkina Faso the go-ahead to intervene if the country comes under attack. Junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani signed decrees that allows Malian and Burkinabe troops to enter Nigerien territory to help avert a threat, Mali’s foreign ministry said. Meanwhile, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu said a swift, peaceful restoration of democratic order in neighboring Niger is crucial and that he is pushing back against pressure to apply military force.
Vedanta Resources is ready to pay $250 million owed to suppliers in Zambia as soon as it resumes control of copper mines that were seized by the southern African nation’s government more than four years ago. Billionaire Anil Agarwal, the company’s founder, also pledged in an interview to invest $1 billion in the Konkola mines and more than double copper production from the operation in the country.
Voting in Zimbabwe was extended to a second day in some areas after delays and logistical problems prevented some people from casting their ballots. President Emmerson Mnangagwa is expected to be reelected despite a long-running economic crisis in the resource-rich country that has led to the near-collapse of government services. More than three-quarters of polling stations in the capital, Harare, and others in Bulawayo, the second-largest city, opened late as observers criticized the slow delivery of ballot papers. Regional observers said the election was “generally calm and peaceful” despite the delays.
Nigeria’s central bank has stepped up its scrutiny of lenders and foreign-exchange bureaus, marking the latest effort to ease a dollar shortage that has sapped the naira. It ordered Wema Bank to stop foreign currency-secured naira loans, a practice it said drains dollar liquidity. The authorities have been trying to find ways to stem volatility in the currency, which has lost 40% in value since Tinubu announced currency reforms in May. Also, Nigeria’s stock exchange has proposed allowing dollar-denominated bond listings and potentially expanding this to stocks.
Kenya plans to begin construction in 2025 of a $13.8 billion high-speed electric railway from its Indian Ocean port of Lamu to Ethiopia and South Sudan. The 3,000-kilometer standard-gauge railway will link the new port to the central Kenyan town of Isiolo, and branch into three to Addis Ababa, Juba and Nairobi. Separately, Ethiopia will investigate a report by Human Rights Watch that border guards from ally Saudi Arabia have killed hundreds of Ethiopian migrants and asylum seekers attempting to cross into the Gulf state from Yemen since March 2022.
• Nigeria reported unemployment data for the first time in two years and, with a revised methodology, the jobless rate plunged — to 4.1% in the three months to end-March. It was at 33.3% the last time the government posted the figures, in early 2021.
• Zambia raised its interest rate for the third time in a row to contain inflation pressures. The 50 basis points hike to 10% takes it to the highest level in three years. Botswana left its benchmark at 2.65%, with inflation at just 1.5%.
South African inflation slowed to a two-year low, providing room for the central bank to call an end to its interest-rate hiking cycle. The 4.7% for July was slower than economists had expected and brings it close to the target-range midpoint.
• Aug. 31 Kenya and Uganda inflation for August, South Africa trade balance & producer inflation for July, Zambia inflation data for August & trade data for July
Quote of the Week
“The name will remain BRICS, it’s beautiful,” Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said at this week’s summit when asked about the acronym now that new members will join the group. “The child is already registered. The child has become an adult, she doesn’t want to change her name.”
Fiber-optic cables that were damaged by a rockfall in an undersea canyon, resulting in slow internet connections in some parts of Africa, should be repaired next month by a specialized vessel. The West Africa Cable System that runs almost 10,000 miles along the sea floor from Europe to southern Africa was damaged with other lines earlier this month off the Congo coast. The 40-year-old cable-layer vessel, Leon Thevenin that’s capable of working in extreme conditions and in shallow or deep water, was moored in Cape Town this week ahead of its repair voyage. All South African networks are currently experiencing disruptions due to the damaged lines, according to Anne-Caroline Tanguy, a spokeswoman at Cloudflare. The fix is expected to be finished in September, although that depends partly on weather conditions.
주제: Africa